Steel Industry November

1. Analysis of the supply of the steel industry November

(1) Iron and steel production has grown significantly year-on-year and may remain high in the later period

Even though there is still a current expectation of warmer demand, actual terminal demand release is still below market expectations. The operation of steel mills has been double squeezed, and the profits of finished products have also been double squeezed, as a result of the relatively firm cost support, pressure from steel prices, and shock from those prices. According to estimates from the Lange Steel Research Center, the national crude steel production in October will remain at 2.8 million. At a level of about 1000 tons, it will still display a double-digit growth rate year-over-year. However, due to significant contraction, which limited the release of steel mill production capacity, maintenance and production reduction began to increase.

The heating season will begin in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in steel industry November. In the future, we must watch the staggering production plan's introduction and execution in the fall and winter. The steel industry's November production release is anticipated to be impacted by the weather.

(2) The social inventory of steel products fluctuates down

The social inventory of steel products fluctuated less in October, and while the level of inventory remained lower than it had been during the same time period the month before, the decline was significantly less pronounced. The social inventory of steel in 29 important cities that Lange Steel Network counted as of the end of October was 9.271 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% from one month to the next and a decrease of 12.8% from one year to the next. Among them, the social inventory of building materials was 4.528 million tons, down 1.0% from the previous month and down 23.8% from the previous year; the social inventory of sheet metal was 4.743 million tons, up 4.2% from the previous month and up 1.1% from the previous year. On the one hand, the relatively steady release of market demand is reflected in the decline in the social inventory of steel in October; on the other hand, it also reflects the decline in the current procurement demand in circulation.

2. Forecast of domestic steel market November

The global monetary policy is continuing to tighten, putting pressure on the international capital market and the commodity market. From the standpoint of the external environment, the world economy continues to be threatened by high inflation and the possibility of an economic recession in steel industry November.

From a domestic perspective, investment and consumption indicators have improved, and industrial production has kept improving. During the implementation of steady growth, consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment are expected to maintain stable growth, but real estate investment is still weak, and exports will also face difficulties. There is some callback pressure, but it is still anticipated that the economy of my nation will continue to stabilize and grow.

Overall, the impact of external interest rate increases, the encouragement of the implementation of the domestic steady growth policy, the limited release of supply at a high level, and the issue of weakening demand during the off-peak season continue to affect the domestic steel market. The domestic steel market will exhibit a trend of weak and erratic operation in steel industry November.